Chapter 281 : The Invisible Hand (16)
Ha Si-heon’s latest “AI Bubble Stress Test” sent a small storm through the market.
Brexit, the smartphone explosion fiasco, and the Deutsche Bank scandal...
Normally, a single prediction like that in a year would be shocking, but this time they came pouring out like a “buy two, get one free” sale.
As a result, WSB was in full-on festival mode.
―On Brexit: “All in with full leverage on ‘Leave’!! +752%!!!! The Queen of England called me begging, ‘I’ll make you a knight, please immigrate here,’ but I refused............... All hail our one and only king, Saint Sean!”
―When I shorted Deutsche with my grandmother’s surgery money, everyone laughed at me. Now my grandma’s rocking a new hip and flexing at a villa in Santorini. Sean is literally a god from the future!
―(Breaking News) Nostradamus kicked open his tomb, knelt before Saint Sean............... “The scribbles you made in the bathroom are more precise than my prophecies,” and handed over the title of Prophet.
Meanwhile, there were plenty of people who missed this chance and were banging their heads in regret.
―So jealous.................. Why did I miss this............. Next time, even if Sean just sneezes, I’ll cash out my tuition and go all in. A half-year break from college and I could start ten universities anyway.
―The signal was too vague. Usually it’s like, ‘YOLOers, sell your house and follow me!’ but this time he just raised an eyebrow......
―If Pareto had gone short, I’d have followed instantly with an all-in......Now my buddies are out yachting while I’m staring at waves in my washing machine.............
The reason they missed this opportunity was obvious.
Ha Si-heon hadn’t directly rallied the retail crowd this time.
During Allergan or the China Yuan Wars, he’d shorted under the name of Pareto and given a clear signal, but this time he hadn’t.
The reason was simple.
If he wasn’t careful, public attention toward AI could scatter.
This whole issue had only been mentioned to highlight AI’s relative risk in the first place.
It wasn’t meant to encourage investment.
In the end, only the retail traders who analyzed his words down to the nanometer made profits, while those waiting to be spoon-fed missed out.
Their discussions soon turned to: “Why didn’t Ha Si-heon give us a signal like usual?”
―The great sage wants equality for all, so there’s no way he deliberately discriminated! There must be a reason!
―Could it be that this wasn’t a Black Swan?
―Well, Deutsche was more of a gray duck than a Black Swan............. smartphones, maybe an injured pigeon.
A Black Swan is an outlier far off the statistical distribution.
Almost impossible to predict, and when it strikes, it shakes the entire world.
But calling the recent events “Black Swan-level” felt............ a bit off.
And the moment they realized that, the conversation began drifting in another direction.
―Wait, so is Saint Sean predicting not just Black Swans? That means he knows not just the outliers, but everything within the distribution too?
―Gray ducks, pigeons, sparrows............ basically anything with wings?
―So he’s got a zoo live-streaming 24/7 in his head???
This was a huge difference.
If in the past he was merely predicting “disasters,” now it meant he might be predicting all future events—including disasters.
Some people were skeptical, but expectations were stronger.
―This is just a guaranteed AI moonshot!! If future-prophet Saint Sean is backing it this hard, there’s no way it fails!
―When Sean explains the AI revolution, the details are insane. Like he’s reminiscing something he already went through. ......! No doubt about it—God-Sean is from the future! The regressor will lead us!!
―My returns before meeting Sean: -35%. Now: +1200%! Even my financial advisor agrees with me—Sean is a time traveler!!
But when Ha Si-heon saw those retail reactions, he couldn’t help but feel uneasy.
Because buried in those memes was a lot of truth.
“Could this become a problem?”
Of course, they weren’t seriously going to believe he was a regressor.
They weren’t about to lock him in a lab and perform human experiments based on such wild theories.
Still, the fact remained: he had made predictions that broke free from any algorithmic principles.
That was the kind of thing that could attract investigations into insider trading or illegal activity—a “risk that needed management.”
“Someday, this is a risk I’ll need to handle.”
But.
“What’s urgent right now is something else.”
Ha Si-heon set down his tablet and turned his eyes to the chessboard.
It was time to move the most important piece in the game.
That piece was the U.S. government.
***
How could he make the U.S. government invest in AI?
“Direct investment is impossible.”
The U.S. government doesn’t directly buy shares in specific companies.
In the holy land of capitalism, “the state extending its hand into corporate management” is seen as violating the sacred principle of free competition.
Of course, in special cases like financial crises, they sometimes step in...............
But those are always extraordinary circumstances.
Normally, government investment takes an indirect form.
Through tax breaks and subsidies, by building infrastructure outright, or by signing massive procurement contracts to act as a “mega-buyer.”
That kind of move sends stock prices soaring.
Once the government steps in, even an uncertain industry transforms into a “government-guaranteed growth card.”
“For new tech like AI, that’s the best outcome possible.”
But for that kind of government support to be possible, one condition absolutely had to be met.
“It has to be a strategic asset.”
A strategic asset, as the name implies, is something of strategic importance—an industry central to national security, economic sovereignty, and technological supremacy.
But AI wasn’t yet in that category.
The first AI-related government task force wouldn’t even be launched until 2018.
That was still over a year away.
Still, with all the recent uproar about an AI war, maybe the government’s stance had shifted since before the regression?
So he decided to probe, just in case...............
—Rejected.
That was the email Alex sent.
Next AI had proposed government support and cooperation, and got shut down hard.
“Same reason as always. They’re still cautious, worried that intervention could stifle the market’s autonomy and innovation.”
The truth was, this wasn’t the first time they’d reached out to the government.
They had been extending their hand since the very founding of Next AI.
“Of course, we never really expected them to agree.”
But there was a reason they kept doing it anyway.
Because even “rejection records” had their own value.
Anyway.
As of now, the U.S. government’s attitude toward AI remained lukewarm.
DARPA (the U.S. Department of Defense’s Advanced Research Projects Agency) and In-Q-Tel (the CIA’s venture capital arm) were making limited investments, but the scale wasn’t being expanded.
The reason was simple.
“Because there was no need yet.”
A strategic asset is only declared when a nation needs to “preserve” hegemony or technological dominance at the state level..................
And in the current AI industry, America’s overwhelming dominance continued.
Why declare it a strategic asset when the market was running just fine without it?
But for me, getting AI declared a strategic asset was essential.
How could I “persuade” them to do that?
The method was simple.
‘I’ll just have to light a fire under their feet.’
America’s laid-back attitude came from its “overwhelming lead.”
In other words, the solution was to give them a suitable rival.
And as it happened, I had a useful connection for that.
I quietly opened my desk drawer, pulled out a business card, and dialed the number written on it.
“Hello? This is Yang Wuqing.”
I had expected to be routed to a secretary, but it seemed this was his personal number.
I smiled softly and said,
“It’s been a while. This is Ha Si-heon. I once met you when you were Vice Premier—though I’m not sure if you remember.”
After a brief silence, he answered.
“Of course, Mr. Ha.”
“My apologies for reaching out so suddenly, Ambassador.”
Yes, the man on the line was none other than the Chinese ambassador.
“I’d like to discuss an important matter. Would you be able to make time?”
***
Ambassador Yang invited me to his residence, but I declined.
“I can’t set foot on ‘Chinese territory’ at the moment.”
After the currency war, China had placed an entry ban on me.
In reality, I had been the one who helped them resolve their shadow finance issues, but publicly I was still regarded as the culprit who triggered the crisis.
In such circumstances, I couldn’t very well stroll near the Chinese embassy as if nothing had happened.
“If you don’t mind, I’d prefer to meet in New York. If travel is inconvenient, I’ll send a private jet for you.”
The location of the meeting had to be decided by me.
This was too important.
The chosen place was the 20 Club.
A famous steakhouse in New York, often visited by the upper class and political figures.
I reserved a private room there, and at last, I faced the ambassador again.
“So, what is this important matter you mentioned...?”
The Chinese ambassador looked rather tense.
‘Well, no wonder.’
The last time I had asked to meet for an “important matter,” we had discussed the currency war and shadow finance.
He must have assumed this time would involve something of similar scale.
But I smiled and tried to ease his worries.
“It’s not so much something new, but a continuation of a previous conversation. Do you recall when we discussed AI learning systems that use patients’ medical data?”
Previously, I had requested from China patient medical data that was difficult to obtain in the U.S.
To that end, I needed to establish a subsidiary in China and push for cooperation.........
“We should probably start preparing soon. Would it be alright if we move forward in earnest next month?”
At my question, the ambassador thought for a moment before answering.
“Is this ‘subsidiary’ you mentioned going to be under Next AI?”
“That hasn’t been decided yet. I wanted to discuss that with you.”
“I see.”
He pondered again before speaking.
“To be frank, considering the level of attention Next AI is receiving in the U.S....... it would be difficult to pursue a joint venture with China on that front. It could trigger unnecessary misunderstandings and even escalate into a diplomatic issue.”
“A diplomatic issue?”
“The misunderstanding that China is trying to lure Next AI, America’s AI frontrunner, into its orbit.”
‘Sharp.’
That was, in fact, exactly what I wanted.
Have I mentioned it before?
The motif of this AI war is “the Cold War.”
‘There may be no Soviet Union...... but China will do just fine as the rival power.’
The key was to make the two superpowers pour money recklessly into technological competition.
That was why I wanted to stage the impression that China was “eyeing” Next AI.
If America felt the fire under its feet, it would start showering incentives to keep Next AI—and all AI companies—on U.S. soil.
That was my plan.
But...
‘They’re not taking the bait so easily.’
The plan required the image of China coveting U.S. AI firms.
Yet the very actor I needed—China—was playing it too cautiously.
In 2016, China wasn’t yet as openly confrontational as it would be later.
‘At this stage, they’re still playing carefully, trying to buy time.’
They didn’t want to provoke the U.S. or spark a diplomatic problem just to keep a promise with me.
The ambassador went on.
“I understand you’ve invested in many other startups as well. If you worked with one of the lower-profile ones, you could cut down the time significantly.”
That was his way of saying: if I kept insisting on cooperation through Next AI, then China would drag its feet too.
That was unacceptable.
So I nodded readily.
“I see. That was shortsighted of me. Of course, I’ll look for a solution through a startup other than Next AI.”
“...?”
The ambassador tilted his head, surprised at how easily I gave in.
“That’s unexpected. I thought you’d be more insistent.”
“Not at all. I never force a partner down a path that makes them uncomfortable.”
Why would I need to?
All I required wasn’t an actual recruitment offer.
Just giving the impression that “China wants me” was enough.
And here we were, meeting one-on-one in a restaurant frequented by many politicians.
If one of them happened to see us together and passed along the gossip—“Ha Si-heon is talking with the Chinese ambassador”—what would happen then?
Of course, an ordinary politician might treat it as idle chatter.
But I knew someone who would spread the news quickly and forcefully.
And I had already arranged for that special someone to be present.
‘I can’t leave something this important to chance.’
This had to be someone deeply interested in me.
Someone who would be rattled to see me “tempted by China.”
And someone in a position to call key government insiders directly.
Who could that person be?
“Shall we head out, then?”
After finishing our meal, the ambassador and I left the private room and walked across the main hall.
And in that moment.
“Sean?”
A familiar voice suddenly called from behind me.
I turned around............ and saw a familiar face.
It was none other than old man Kissinger.