Chapter 241: Paid Service (4)
And that signal soon arrived.
The news shook every headline.
< Pareto Innovation: “7% Yuan Depreciation Necessary” Declaration... >
< A Provocation Toward China? Ha Si-heon Drops ‘7% Yuan Depreciation Bomb’ Amid Already Ongoing War >
China, the world’s largest holder of foreign reserves, was an impregnable fortress.
Bringing down that fortress was no easy task.
Ants and hedge funds had already poured a staggering $150 billion into the attack, but China was building an even more formidable defense with its vast reserves.
Then, at that very moment, Ha Si-heon dropped a new bomb.
It was a white paper titled:
<Defending the Yuan vs. Economic Growth: The People’s Bank of China’s 7% Dilemma.>
In truth, the content of the report merely summarized topics that had already been debated among experts.
But there was one decisive difference—Ha Si-heon didn’t use vague phrases like "potential depreciation."
He presented a concrete figure.
However, a 7% drop was too extreme and radical for the market to easily accept.
—China has never allowed such a steep depreciation of its currency.
—Even during the global financial crisis and the Asian currency crisis, China fought tooth and nail to maintain the value of the yuan.
—Moreover, as China seeks IMF SDR inclusion, it would not deliberately crash its own exchange rate.
Such a drastic devaluation would trigger retaliatory tariffs from trading partners.
Rather than boosting exports, it would spark a trade war.
Would China really take such a risk? Wall Street analysts dismissed Ha Si-heon’s forecast as a politically unrealistic target.
Even other hedge funds shorting alongside Ha Si-heon said, “We agree with the overall analysis, but the projected decline is excessively large,” and kept their distance.
But retail investors reacted very differently.
—Saint Sean says 7%—then it must be truth!
—Newton’s physics and Keynes’ economics are products of human intellect, but the prophecies of Delphi stem from the mysteries of the universe!
—I tried to join the group "People Who Don’t Listen to Ha Si-heon," but there were no members left… everyone went bankrupt...
A clear number ignited an explosive surge in morale among the retail army.
However, there was one problem...
The WSB retail investors who had already bet their life savings had no more funds to invest.
But collective intelligence soon found a brilliant solution.
—If American retail investors aren’t enough, why not recruit retail investors from around the world to join this battlefield?
—Comrades in Japan! Do you not know Ha Si-heon yet? Wall Street’s samurai, the god of Delphi, the nightmare of the Chinese government! Come and experience returns spicier than wasabi!
—French retail investors! Your returns will soar higher than the Eiffel Tower! Invest the cost of a bottle of wine in shorting the yuan!
While Ha Si-heon was already revered as a god among U.S. retail investors, overseas he was just now gaining fame after the Greek crisis.
WSB retail investors immediately became "missionaries" and launched widespread recruiting campaigns.
—When Saint Sean predicted the Greek default, I dropped out of college and put my entire tuition into it. Now a professor of economics is begging to pay the fee to attend my investment seminar. #Harvard_Economics_Professor_Tears #Proof_Here
—Used my parents’ retirement funds to short Valeant and bought a Ferrari. Now planning to buy a beach house by shorting the yuan. #SorryMomDad_BuyingYouAnIslandNextYear #ProofAttached
Countless testimonial posts with profit screenshots were translated into Spanish, Portuguese, Korean, Japanese, and spread like wildfire on social media.
Seeing this, skeptical international retail investors began joining the yuan shorting front, one by one.
Though they weren’t betting their life savings like the Americans, even small investments from global retail investors created formidable collective power.
In just a few days, an additional $50 billion flowed into the short positions.
However.
From China’s perspective, this level of attack was laughable.
—They’re nothing but a ragtag bunch.
These ants were untrained amateurs—basically, a peasant army with pickaxes and shovels.
How could such rabble possibly breach China’s solid walls?
Now it was time to show them.
<China ramps up forex market intervention... $500 billion emergency injection to defend yuan.>
With this headline, China sprang into action.
Abandoning its defensive-only posture, it launched a full-scale counterattack.
State-owned banks began aggressively absorbing CNH (offshore yuan) in Hong Kong markets.
As a result, HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) surged 100% in a single day, the yuan rebounded sharply, and weakly capitalized retail investors began seeing their short positions forcibly liquidated.
A ruthless counterstrike.
It was like giant boulders raining down from the battlements.
Ordinary ragtag forces would have panicked and collapsed in the face of such ferocity.
But—
—Do not panic! Beginners, remember to keep a credit card ready for margin calls—we planned for this!
—A true follower of Delphi survives at least five margin calls!
—Margin call 1 is initiation, 2 is baptism, 3 is coming of age! #BankruptcyIsJustAResetButton
—Had a heart attack, got rushed to ER, but snuck out behind the doctor’s back. Even if my heart stops, my position won’t.
They didn’t flinch or run.
They were no longer mere peasants.
Having survived the brutal battles of Valeant and Herbalife, they were now hardened veterans.
Most importantly...
They had Ha Si-heon’s prophecy of "7%" to guide them.
That number kept them going.
That number kept them fighting.
Meanwhile, the hedge funds were preparing a lethal barrage.
They were no peasant army.
Equipped with advanced weapons and precise tactics, these elite forces had dominated many battlefields.
While the ants distracted China, the hedge funds quietly prepared.
Finally, they launched coordinated airstrikes across the globe.
In Hong Kong, they aggressively sold yuan futures to trigger price shocks while flooding the spot market to fuel volatility.
In New York, they bought massive amounts of yuan put options to unsettle market sentiment and spark a chain reaction.
In Singapore, they preemptively acquired key bonds to squeeze Chinese banks’ liquidity and cut off supply lines.
This was no reckless charge—it was a surgical strike aimed at vital points.
China was forced onto the back foot.
While patching the countless cracks caused by the ants, it also had to repair the damage inflicted by the hedge funds’ assault.
No matter how deep its reserves, it was hard to withstand such relentless attacks indefinitely.
Moreover, every patch it applied ballooned defense costs.
In the end, China made a tough decision.
<China plays shock card... 2% rate hike to fight currency speculation head-on.>
Raising interest rates was an effective way to defend the yuan.
It boosted demand for the currency and sharply raised borrowing costs for short sellers.
However.
This was a double-edged sword.
Heavily indebted Chinese companies were now drowning in debt due to the rate hike.
It was like imposing crushing taxes on merchants to protect the castle walls.
The hedge funds wasted no time.
Taking aim...
<Pareto Innovation targets Chinese corporate debt... massive CDS bets.>
<Wall Street hedge funds shift target from yuan to corporate debt... 'Second front opens.'>
Led by Ha Si-heon, hedge funds shifted their focus.
They moved their attacks from the yuan to corporate debt.
It was like bypassing the fortress and infiltrating the city, then hitting merchants with debt collection.
Already reeling from higher rates, merchants now faced aggressive debt collectors and were pushed to the brink of bankruptcy.
But China wouldn’t stand idly by.
<China moves to protect key industries... government announces emergency liquidity support.>
Through state-owned banks, China offered low-interest loans to companies hit hard by the hedge funds’ assault.
This allowed merchants to stave off immediate bankruptcy.
However...
It placed a tremendous burden on China’s treasury.
And the attacks continued unabated.
The ants kept chipping away at the walls below, and hedge funds kept raining down bombs.
Utterly exhausted, China finally took a step back.
<China devalues yuan by 2%... global forex markets roiled?>
It was like giving up some gold coins to the invaders.
But China hoped they’d be satisfied and retreat...
—7% or death!
—Yuan short positions flow through my veins instead of blood!
—I even changed my kids’ names to ‘Seven’ and ‘Percent’!
For the ants, the number "7%" had already been etched into their souls as an eternal truth.
Meanwhile, what about the hedge funds?
Most hedge funds had initially targeted just a 2% adjustment, so they could have pulled out at this point without issue.
However, they were ruthless opportunists to the core.
‘Why retreat?’
With the tide of battle turning in their favor, there was no reason to fall back.
As a result, morale remained high, and the assault grew even fiercer.
But then—
A new variable emerged.
China’s 2% devaluation triggered a new problem within its own walls.
<Fallout from Yuan devaluation... Real estate and construction crisis deepens in China.>
This time, companies holding dollar-denominated debt took a direct hit.
In particular, large real estate developers and construction firms with high levels of dollar debt were essentially handed a death sentence.
Now, not only the merchants inside the walls, but also the builders were on the brink of bankruptcy.
China responded immediately once again.
<China moves to rescue real estate and construction sectors... Approves massive liquidity injection.>
They mobilized state-owned banks to pour out special low-interest loans and provided comprehensive support to companies teetering on the edge.
However, all these measures placed a tremendous strain on the national treasury.
Meanwhile, the invaders’ offensive continued unabated.
The bombardment didn’t stop.
The treasury was being depleted by the day.
Thus, China was forced to make an even greater concession.
<China enacts largest-ever currency adjustment... 5% yuan devaluation.>
China surely hoped this would be enough to satisfy its attackers.
But for those atop the battlements, it wasn’t even close.
—5%? Saint Sean said 7%! The remaining 2% is the law of the universe! The rule of nature! This is the final test of our faith! Hold the line! Diamond hands!
The ants knew no satisfaction.
And the hedge funds, seeing the favorable conditions, had no reason to retreat either.
To make matters worse, the 5% plunge unleashed another unexpected force.
<Yuan devaluation fallout... Multinationals rapidly repatriate capital from China.>
Foreign merchants inside the walls began swiftly pulling out their money.
As the yuan’s value plunged, multinational corporations rushed to convert their assets to minimize losses.
And that wasn’t all.
<Yuan volatility surges... Hedging activity spikes as China risk aversion spreads.>
Neighboring countries and global institutional investors began moving too.
If the yuan were to fall to 7%, their yuan-denominated assets would suffer massive losses.
To prepare for that, they scrambled to secure "insurance."
The problem was that these corporations and institutions had vastly greater financial firepower than the ants and hedge funds combined.
They were elephants.
Even though they had no intention of attacking China—merely seeking to protect themselves—hundreds of giant elephants stampeding across the battlements would shake even the strongest fortress.
China was now in tatters.
A thousand pickaxes gnawing at its walls, the unrelenting bombardment of hedge funds, a treasury drained to save its merchants—and now the rampaging elephants.
It had exceeded the limits of what could be sustained.
Or more precisely:
‘It could still hold.’
But doing so would completely drain the national treasury.
Was defending the fortress worth that cost?
The answer came quickly.
‘No.’
In the end, China raised the white flag.
<China abandons currency defense... Officially announces 7% yuan devaluation.>
It was a complete declaration of surrender.
Upon hearing the news, the ants withdrew en masse.
Hedge funds, having secured greater-than-expected profits, quickly closed their positions.
And seeing the situation stabilize, the elephants halted their hedging as well.
Thus, the war came to an end.
Victory cheers echoed in all directions.
Wall Street was ecstatic.
It wasn’t just about the profits—this war carried another significance.
—We brought China to its knees! $3 trillion in foreign reserves turned out to be a paper dragon after all!
—In ’92 it was the pound, in ’15 the yuan... in the end, all must kneel before the power of the market.
—This marks a turning point in modern financial history—the dawn of a new game.
It was another instance where hedge funds had forced a global superpower to submit.
They were intoxicated by the thought of having written a new chapter in financial history.
Meanwhile, on WSB...
—We prophesied 7%, we went all in, we conquered! We ants shall usher in a new era of glorious conquest!
—We believed in 7%, we bet on it, we won! The People’s Bank of China is now my personal ATM!
—I was a credit delinquent on the brink of ruin, now I’m a millionaire overnight! Saint Sean is my soul doctor and savior of my wallet!
They trembled with joy, reveling in this victory and in the fact that their faith had been rewarded.
And alongside their joy, they openly mocked China.
—Just fired the entire Chinese bond team and posted job openings for WSB members lol. Requirements: 1) Diamond Hands certified, 2) 5+ margin calls survived, 3) Must have memorized all Ha Si-heon quotes.
—Rumor has it the PBOC governor tried to join WSB—we IP-banned him. Membership is for winners only! Better luck next life as an ant!
—Breaking: 200 trucks deployed in Beijing to collect tears.
They were certain.
By now, China must be drowning in sorrow.
But—
Their expectations were dead wrong.
Deep within the fortress...
China’s top officials were quietly raising their glasses in a toast.
