Chapter 230. The Oracle of Delphi (2)
June 1st, 2015, 9:00 a.m.
The Delphi Institute released a new report.
But within just three minutes of its release, the institute's official website crashed due to an overwhelming surge in traffic.
This was an extremely unusual occurrence.
Think tank reports often fail to garner much attention, even from industry insiders.
Distributing press releases to companies and media, and requesting expert reviews, usually results in lukewarm responses at best.
But the Delphi Report was different.
Because Ha Si-heon stood at the center of controversy, many were watching his next move closely.
The servers were down for a full thirty minutes.
During that time, social media was flooded with reactions from people who had obtained the report early.
—Saint Sean’s latest revelation! Winter is coming!
—Breaking: Saint Sean has just released the trailer for an economics-themed horror film.
—The master of market manipulation has returned.
—Looks like he's trying to stir up fear and cash in on it this time.
But thirty minutes later.
When the site finally came back online, people were puzzled.
<The Arrival of the Black Swan: The Collapse of Greece, the Disaster Everyone Ignored>The content of the Delphi Institute's report was not what people had expected.
—Greece...?
To Americans, Greece was merely a small tourist destination on the Mediterranean.
A few remembered it as "that country with all the debt problems," but most paid little attention.
In other words, it was the kind of topic that would normally pass unnoticed.
However, if the author was Ha Si-heon, that changed everything.
Driven by curiosity, people quickly opened the file.
<Greek Default: The Beginning of a Crisis That Could Shake the Eurozone>[The Greek government is unlikely to meet its scheduled debt payment to the IMF this June.
This would mark the first time in IMF history that a developed country has defaulted…]
The report predicted the possibility of a Greek default.
But the public and the market reacted with boredom.
—That story again?
Greece’s debt crisis was already old news to those in the know.
After all, similar crises had occurred in 2010 and 2012.
And each time, the EU had bailed Greece out, with most assuming the same would happen this time.
Negotiations between the Greek government and the EU were already underway.
Although difficulties were expected, most experts believed the issue would eventually be resolved.
But Delphi's outlook was different.
<Greek citizens, having suffered through two previous rounds of austerity, are likely to oppose further austerity measures. And the newly formed radical left-wing government this year, backed by public sentiment, is likely to firmly reject the Eurozone’s demands. Meanwhile, European nations are showing growing fatigue over continuous bailouts. Especially in Germany and Northern Europe, there is little political room to approve more financial aid…>Delphi was adamant.
This time would be different.
They even predicted the fallout.
<The current market is complacent, gripped by a false sense of optimism that "things will work out." Therefore, if negotiations collapse, the market is likely to fall into panic. Greek banks will face large-scale bank runs, forcing extreme withdrawal limits and capital controls. The euro will likely experience a sharp devaluation, and hundreds of billions of dollars may vanish from global stock markets in a short time…>A prophecy of chaos and panic.
But most experts scoffed.
— While we don’t deny the possibility of a default, given Greece’s small economy, the chances of such a doomsday scenario materializing are slim.
Think tanks have their reasons for releasing “doomsday” reports.
Mainly because fear like this sells well.
Of course, not everyone laughed off Delphi’s warnings.
—Sold my car (0), sold my house (0). Time to short Zeus!
—With premiums this low, not shorting is just dumb.
—Malaysia: Tutorial / Europe: Raid Boss / Us: Now the real game begins.
—This is the real endgame. Going in 3x leverage.
The WSB forums quickly transformed into a hub for trading strategy exchanges.
But on the other side, sharp criticism poured in.
—This time he's baiting the retail investors.
—SEC, we got a suspicious guy here? Ah… never mind, they're asleep again.
—No apology, just straight to dropping bomb #2… Looks like ‘sorry’ isn’t in Ha Si-heon’s dictionary.
—apology.txt: 404 Not Found / fear-marketing.pdf: loading…
Soon, all kinds of SNS and online communities turned into battlegrounds for debate.
—Say it’s a crisis? “You’re manipulating the market!”
—Crisis hits? “Why didn’t anyone warn us?”
—Theoretical probability = real probability? Go take a basic stats class.
—Did you even read the report? Germany’s not giving out a cent this time.
—No reason to keep handing money to Greece.
— [Germany’s wallet is closed.]
—But will they really allow Grexit? If that happens, Italy and Spain will collapse next, and Germany will go down with them.
This was a scene previously unimaginable.
People fiercely debating international finance and European politics?
Normally uninterested in such topics, people were now researching just to engage in keyboard battles.
Even if only to criticize Ha Si-heon, people began digging into the situation.
The anti-Delphi crowd’s logic was simple.
The Greek default was just a statistically plausible event.
Ha Si-heon’s real goal was to profit off the chaos that his reports triggered in the market.
—Just wait a few days, we’ll see the truth.
—If negotiations go through, we’ll hear retail traders crying from miles away.
—Maybe they need to lose big once to learn their lesson.
—Looks like a lot of retail folks will pay a steep tuition fee this time. Sad.
But a few days later, everything changed.
<Greece Fails to Repay €300 Million IMF Loan>Greece failed to make its first scheduled payment to the IMF.
Of course, there was still time left until the end of June to pay off the entire debt, so this did not count as an official default.
Still, the market was rattled.
People knew negotiations were going poorly, but no one expected things to be bad enough for Greece to skip the very first payment.
The news sparked an immediate reaction.
The yield on Greece’s 10-year bonds surpassed 14%, the Athens Stock Exchange Index plummeted by 9.5% in a single day, and some Greek bank stocks crashed as much as 20%.
But amid rising fears about Greece, there were people who were cheering louder than anyone else...
—Insane, GREK puts up 500%!
—From 50K to 180K. Shorting is now my religion.
—Cashed out the inheritance, going all-in again. Grandpa would be proud.
—Quitting my job to join the Church of Delphi.
The WSB forums were flooded with posts showing off profits.
Of course, the opposing side hurled fierce criticism.
— Hyenas profiting from crisis…
—Popping champagne while Greek citizens weep blood? Do you have any decency?
— This is the ugly face of financial capitalism… profiting from others’ pain…
But.
Words and actions don’t always align.
Despite their harsh words, many were secretly thinking, “Is it too late to jump in?”—and followed WSB into the same bets.
The result...
<Put option volume on Greek bank stocks surged 3,000% compared to the previous week. Judging by the small lot sizes, most trades likely came from individual investors.>Retail investors don’t usually hold much sway in the market.
But when they unite and move in one direction, they can’t be ignored.
Everyone knew that well.
They had witnessed that power just a few months prior.
The media raised its concerns even further.
<We’re seeing a repeat of the reckless retail betting from the Herbalife–Valeant saga, now happening in Greece. At the center of it all lies the Delphi Report.>“The Department of Justice and SEC are recommending we issue a warning.”
Patricia cautiously spoke up.
Because Delphi’s latest report had become so controversial, her connections had passed along “advice” through various channels.
Their message was simple.
They wanted a disclaimer stating that “Delphi’s reports are merely analyses and forecasts, and investment decisions should be made carefully.”
But I answered firmly.
“That’s not possible. There’s no reason for us to diminish our own influence.”
“But...”
Patricia’s expression turned conflicted.
Up until now, she had followed my instructions without question, but this time, doubt seemed to be creeping in.
Looks like I should explain.
If unease leads to unclear execution of orders, things could get messy.
I looked her straight in the eyes and began to speak slowly.
“I told you, didn’t I? What I want is to become the ‘modern-day Oracle of Delphi.’”
“But isn’t that separate from a warning statement? Issuing a warning wouldn’t undermine the accuracy of the predictions already released. It’s just a precaution to avoid potential liability—”
“No. That’s exactly why we can’t do it. Because we must take partial responsibility for this situation.”
“...?”
“Accuracy alone doesn’t make someone the Oracle of Delphi.”
“Excuse me? What do you mean by that...?”
Patricia looked more confused than ever.
Which was understandable.
“Do you think heads of state will come to us just because our forecasts are accurate? They’re already surrounded by experts who claim to know the future. Even if we’re right, would they abandon their current advisors and choose us instead?”
“Maybe not right away, but over time, wouldn’t we stand out?”
“Even if that’s true, trying to earn their ‘recognition’ that way isn’t a smart strategy.”
That wasn’t the dynamic I was aiming for.
Being chosen as the best among many so-called gifted forecasters would not make us the true Oracle of Delphi.
“Think about it. Did the Oracle ever seek recognition? No. If she had, the ancient kings would’ve summoned her to court as needed. But instead, they traveled to Delphi and kneeled before her. Why do you think that was?”
The ancient kings didn’t approach Delphi to hire someone with skills.
They bowed their heads to receive her counsel.
“There’s only one reason. Because the Oracle didn’t give predictions—she gave prophecies.”
That distinction was critical.
But Patricia still didn’t seem to grasp my point.
“Prophecies? Wait… are you trying to give a religious tone to this think tank?”
Her eyes were filled with doubt.
She seemed to suspect that I was trying to start some kind of cult now that people were calling me ‘Saint Sean.’
I smiled and reassured her.
“No, this has nothing to do with religion. What matters here is the force that moved ancient kings. Prophecies are sought for convenience, rationality, and necessity. But...”
I paused for a moment and looked at her again.
“There’s only one reason to seek a divine oracle: fear.”
“Fear?”
“That’s right. Anyone who disobeyed or misinterpreted the Oracle’s words was inevitably met with disaster.”
That was the key.
Predictions can be ignored. Prophecies cannot.
Because defiance leads to inevitable ruin.
“To become the modern Oracle of Delphi, we need to stand in that same position. In other words, we must show that ignoring our advice leads to catastrophe. If possible, it would be ideal to demonstrate power capable of toppling at least one nation.”
A mix of conflicting emotions flickered across Patricia’s face.
“But… using a nation as a scapegoat just to flaunt our influence...?”
I gently cut her off.
“Oh, don’t misunderstand. There’s no way a single person like me could bring down a whole country. And even if it did fall, that just means it was fated to collapse anyway. We’re simply riding the current.”
“I’m not sure I follow...”
She still seemed unsure.
I paused for a moment, then came up with an easier analogy.
“Picture this. There’s an old, rotting house that could collapse at any moment. Someone realizes this, climbs onto the roof, and starts jumping. The house collapses. So, who’s to blame? The person who jumped on the roof?”
“Well... no. The house was going to fall anyway.”
“Exactly. A solid house wouldn’t crumble just because someone jumped a little.”
I nodded.
Then, with a meaningful smile, I asked her,
“But if people known for collapsing houses every time they jump on rooftops showed up at your house and said they’d like to try jumping—would you open the door?”
(To be continued)