Chapter 24: Revised - 24 Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Battle situation simulation is a very complex technique; computers cannot fully calculate all real combat outcomes. Sometimes, small accidental events can change the whole war outcome. The same troop deployments, the same situation, the same maps, and the same simulation system can yield completely different results from different simulation experts using different techniques.
Since the invention of sand table simulations in ancient Earth wars, simulation has become an essential means of mimicking both sides' situations and formulating combat plans in wars. With the advent of the space era, simulations have evolved into various factions. The emergence of these factions is related to the completely different combat methods and environments of space warfare compared to ancient Earth wars. Likewise, the unpredictability in real battle situations has inevitably become a deadlock in simulations.
To solve this almost unsolvable problem, countless simulation experts have tried all means to minimize the impact of chance on the battle outcome during wars. Some factions are keen on refining combat instructions, striving to eliminate accidental events. They meticulously detail environment, weapons, timing, etc. Undoubtedly, such simulations can be very precise with a comprehensive plan to handle accidents. However, due to the vast amount of calculations and the cumbersome execution of orders by soldiers, such simulations can only apply to local battles below regiment level. Some simulation factions calculate the probabilities of accidental events and their impact on the battle situation: if the probability is low and impact small, they let it be; if the probability is high and impact significant, they change the combat plan. Other factions almost completely ignore accidents. Their solution is to leverage overwhelming advantages and maintain ample reserve forces to tackle sudden events on the battlefield, compensating for shortcomings in simulations. Of course, there is no perfect combat plan, nor can there always be an advantageous battle situation.
War is a military wrestle between two or more parties, a continuation of politics. It involves political needs, international situations, public sentiment, economy, technology, military power, and various other intertwined aspects. More importantly, simulations are not one-sided. While one side is conducting simulations and making military plans and deployments, the other side is doing the same, possibly even better due to intelligence or capability.
If simulations are not done well, military battle plans will likely fail. Just like in chess, one could be controlled by the opponent all the way, often referred to by military strategists as being "led by the nose."
In the Military Academy, the study and assessment of simulation subjects occupy a significant portion. Gifted students in simulations often get recommended for internships at advanced military command posts. After graduation, they are directly assigned to units for internships, becoming commanding officers in the spotlight or military strategists orchestrating behind the scenes.
No faction or simulation genius can guarantee their simulations are completely correct. Ignorance is fearless. In the cave, there's a Fatty who can make such guarantees. He only studied a peculiar ancient Earth Oriental simulation method for six months, totally unaware of the complexity of simulations. He only knows that in over a thousand simulated battle situations based on intelligence and simulation methods, the determination of enemy movements had a 99.75% accuracy rate, and his calculations of enemy combat power, mobility, attack and defense strength, and combat range had an accuracy rate of 90%.
Aside from old, outdated books like The Art of War by Sun Tzu, this ancient Earth Oriental simulation method includes Zhou Yi. Its calculation methods are particularly unique. Therefore, almost no one other than Fatty is interested in this method. In the modern era where technology reigns supreme, this inscrutable seeming method for calculating luck being used for simulations is simply ridiculous. Initially, Fatty didn't believe in it either, but this complex simulation system appeared very profound. After he finally grasped it, not carrying out simulations seemed an affront to his own efforts. Results from thousands of simulated battle situations showed that this simulation technique is definitely superior to many contemporary factions. Hence, this simulation method incorporating Zhou Yi's Grand Numerology theory, which states that out of fifty, one is missing, causing all things to come alive, completely fascinated Fatty.
This simulation method also has unique solutions for uncontrollable accidental events. These strange methods impressed Fatty immensely. In its military theories, uncontrollable accidental events are not treated as independent situations but integrated into the entire battle scenario. By deploying small forces to continuously execute various favorable actions for oneself at appropriate times and locations, they neutralize the adverse consequences of unpredictable events at the macro level. The commonly utilized backup plans are also very comprehensive. The core theory of this simulation method is encapsulated in eight words: "Seize the key point, go with the flow."